‘Vaccine likely to be available this September’
Ishtiyaq Ahmed
Srinagar, April 28 : Kashmir’s
noted epidemiologist, gastroenterologist and a scientist, Dr Muhamad
Sultan Khuroo who has discovered “Hepatitis E” while revealing that
vaccine to cure deadly pandemic Covid-19 is expected to be available by
September this year, said that the community transmission of deadly
covid-19 will be a disaster for the country.
He also maintained that so far there is no proven drug available to
treat Coronavirus but key to prevent its spread lies in keeping the
R-naughts (R0), the reproduction number of the virus as less as
possible.
In a detailed and
exclusive chat with the news agency KINS Dr Khuroo revealed that many
countries and virologists are busy in finding a vaccine to cure deadly
pandemic Covid-19 and that by September this year, a vaccine is
expected to be available. “The deadly Covid-19 has taken the whole
world by a storm. The reason is that the virus which has come from
Wuhan, China has more infectivity power than the SARS virus,” he said.
Elaborating, Dr Khuroo, who has worked on 13 epidemic diseases so far,
said that it is like that a person is positive and his whole family is
positive.
“An article was
published in January about the infectivity of the virus. In January, we
knew it is going to be a problem for the humanity,” he said. Stating
that the R0 (R naught), reproduction number of the Covid-19 is at
present 3, much higher than SARS.
“This means if one person gets a virus he will give it to three people
during its life span which is five days. This also means that the
person will infect three more in five days which continues to multiple
and in nine days, we will have 27 people and the number keeps on
growing. This is called exponential growth,” Dr Khuroo said.
He said that every virus has a super spreader like “we had in Kashmir,
the two person’s one who died and another who had a travel history of
Saudi Arabia.
“What these two
persons did is that they didn’t follow R0 and that they infect
hundreds. Even in South Korea, one woman infected 3000 people. Even
though it was a disputed issue, but it has happened. Here in Gund
Jehangir area of north Kashmir’s Bandipora district where one person
spread the virus and today we have 126 positive cases,” he said.
Dr Khuroo said that Covid is different than SARS. “SARS never
overloaded the health care facilities. When SARS came from China, it was
from the Bats, but never overloaded the health care facilities as its
R0 was less and about 1.3,” he said. “Today, Covid has overloaded our
hospitals. In Italy, people died in lack of ventilator and same happened
in UK, Spain and New York to some extent as well. This is the property
of the virus that this spreads so fast and so many people get into the
hospital at a time,” he said. “It used to happen in Plague and
smallpox which had a very high R0.”
He said that key to success and controlling the spread of Covid lies in reducing R0 and the doubling time of the virus.
“Today is April 28, and we have 28000 positive cases in India. When
would the number double and reach 56000, I mean, in how many days, is
called doubling time.
Urging people
to follow four tools to prevent the spread of the virus, Dr Khuroo
said that people must maintain social distancing, follow lockdown and
avoid congregational gatherings, stay home, wear a face mask and wash
hands frequently.
“With these
tools, we can reduce the R0 and increase the doubling time. From 3 (RO)
it has to come to below 1 at present. Once it comes to below 1, that
mean if somebody is infected he gives it to none or maximum to one
person. You will have to increase the doubling time as much as
possible to contain the virus,” he said. “If that happens, the virus
will flatten over a period of time and it will get controlled.”
Asked whether there is any drug to treat the Covid 19 at present as
claimed by US president Donal Trump that hydroxychloroquine was
effective in treating the virus, Dr Khuroo said that as of now, no
proved drug is available for the treatment of Virus.
He, however, said that vaccine is expected to be formed in September
this year and that will be from Oxford. “Americans are also working on
it and scientists and experts are also working on in at London,” he
said.
Dr Khuroo ruled out that
there was a community spread of Covid in Kashmir. “So far we are into
primary spread, person to person. But once that happens, you will not
have 28000, but 50 lakh cases in the country. Community spread will be a
disaster. May god save us from it. If we relax like start going to
masjids, attending marriage functions, offering funerals of deceased in
large numbers, things are set to take an ugly shape,” he said. “We are
fighting an invisible enemy, if we don’t take care, it will destroy
the community.”
Author of more than
300 research papers that earned Dr Mohammad Sultan Khuroo national and
international fame , it was the discovery of hepatitis E virus which
established him as a discoverer world over .
His other contribution in the areas of “Hepato-Biliary and
Pancreatic Ascariasis”, “Hepatic Vein thrombosis in pregnancy”, “Portal
Biliopathy”, “PAIR for Hydatid Liver” and “PPI in peptic ulcer
bleeding ” brought him into the world League of Original
researchers in the field Medical science .
M S Khuroo was conferred with international award for discovery of
Hepatitis E. He had received the award at a conference in Moscow,
Russia.
The award was instituted in
2012 in the honor of late Dr Balayan by Chumakov Institute of
Poliomyelitis and Viral Encephalitides, of the Russian Academy of
Medical Sciences. An international panel of scientists and medical
professionals was constituted to select a person who has done seminal
and monumental work in the field of Hepatitis E.
Prof Khuroo was the first International scientist to receive the
prestigious award that includes a medal and a diploma
certificate.(KINS)